Getting the 10-Year Yield Right

The U.S. 10-year yield today dipped below 1.8% again, a one year low. Starting with the taper tantrum in 2013, we should have been well on our way to sustainably higher yields and yet we are probing the lows again.

us10yr

In the process, every forecaster has been shown to be wrong, year after year…

10yrwrong
From John Cochrane’s excellent blog.

(John Cochrane’s post on the subject).

At the same time, Japan’s (*cough* rigged) 10-year yield dipped below 0.05% today. Just when you thought yields couldn’t go any lower – they do.

Something for interested economists to chew on.

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