Notes on oil 29012016

From the FT,

Oil prices surged as much as 8 per cent on Thursday after energy minister Alexander Novak told journalists that Russia was ready to take part in a meeting with OPEC members in February.

Igor Sechin, Rosneft’s chief executive and the most powerful figure in the Russian energy industry, has long argued that the structure of the country’s oil sector and its harsh winters would make it challenging to implement a government-mandated output cut.

Mr Leontyev did not rule out the possibility of a cut, but said:

Everything is possible in theory. It was possible a year ago, a month ago. Nothing new has happened. This frenzy is idiotic. It stems from the fact that people can’t read.

“People can’t read”…I should like to meet this Mr Leontyev.

In “Welcome to The New Oil Order“, Ed Morse writes,

In the old world oil order the US did not count — with its declining output it was a taker of prices; with its permanent importer status, it was a bystander to global oil politics and production decision-making.

The shale revolution in the US has made a huge difference. The US is now arguably the world’s largest oil liquids producer in the world, if you take into account crude oil production and other supply like liquefied petroleum gases (LPGs), biofuels output and the incremental volumetric gains from having the largest refining system in the world.

On paper the US might produce 9.3m barrels a day against Russia’s 11.1m b/d and Saudi Arabia’s 10.3m b/d. Add everything that looks and smells and is used as oil and the US is the biggest of the lot, producing 14.8m b/d versus the kingdom’s 11.7m b/d, versus. Russia’s 11.5m b/d.

From Reuters,

Iran’s oil exports are on set to rise more than a fifth in January and February from last year’s daily average, data from a source with knowledge of its loading schedules shows, revealing how Tehran is ramping up sales after the lifting of sanctions.

The data is the first sign of a resurgence in crude shipments as the OPEC producer begins to raise output and clears out oil that has built up in offshore storage over the past four years of curtailed participation in world markets.

The market is closely watching the pace of Iran’s return to the market after sanctions were removed earlier this month, given a global glut in supplies that has pulled prices down 70 percent since mid-2014. Hopes that other top producers such as Saudi Arabia and Russia could cooperate with OPEC to contain production have lifted prices this week.




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