From the FT today,

However, there remains a stark divergence between the 2016 interest rate path implied by markets and the US central bank itself, which could still augur financial turbulence in the coming year.


Investors pointed out that Fed governors’ predictions have generally proven overly optimistic in recent years, while markets have proven more accurate forecasters.

However, that could be on the cusp of changing, according to Luke Bartholomew, a fund manager at Aberdeen Asset Management. “We may finally be at the tipping point, where the market starts to take the Fed’s own forecasts more seriously,” he argued in a note.


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