I chanced upon this talk by Howard Marks via Richard Beddard‘s tweet:
First, it’s hard to consistently make the right decisions that correctly factor in all of the relevant facts and consideration (i.e. it’s hard to be great).
Second, it’s far from certain that even ‘right’ decisions will be successful, since every decision requires assumptions about what the future will look like, and even reasonable assumptions can be thwarted by the world’s randomness. Thus, many correct decisions will result in failure (i.e. it’s hard to look right).
Third, even well-founded decisions that eventually turn out to be right are unlikely to do so promptly. This is because not only are future events uncertain, their timing is particularly variable (i.e. it’s impossible to look right on time).
Do watch the whole thing here: